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It’s arduous to imagine that Vodafone (LSE:VOD) shares had been as soon as altering arms for practically £5.50 simply after the flip of the millennium. As we speak, the FTSE 100 telecoms inventory is a shadow of its former self, with the share value languishing under 70p.
Following an 18-month Competitors and Markets Authority (CMA) investigation, the corporate secured long-awaited regulatory approval for a merger with rival agency Three UK in December final yr. The three way partnership is predicted to return on stream imminently.
However, how has this information impacted affected person long-term traders in Vodafone shares, who’ve endured substantial losses?
Six-month efficiency
Again in October 2024, a £10,000 funding in Vodafone might have purchased 13,329 shares. Sadly, information of the merger approval appears to have had little impact on the inventory’s downward trajectory. That holding would solely be value £9,250 right this moment.
At the very least an interim dividend cost of £251.39 would have softened the blow considerably. However traders would nonetheless be practically £500 within the purple. To make issues worse, that distribution marked a big 50% minimize from the identical interval final yr. An uncomfortable reminder that no dividends are assured.
Share value restoration hopes
Frankly, lots is using on the merger with Three. Little else appears to be going proper for Vodafone presently. Service income progress in Europe is stagnant, dragged down by a very poor efficiency within the essential German market — the supply of over a 3rd of the group’s gross sales.
Authorized modifications have ended bulk tv contracting in German residence blocks. That’s a giant issue behind Vodafone’s 6.4% service income droop within the jurisdiction. Amongst households caught by the brand new regulation, the corporate has misplaced over half of its prospects.
The steadiness sheet is one other huge concern. Web debt of £26.4bn is an uncomfortably excessive legal responsibility for an organization with a market cap that’s £9.2bn lower than this determine. It’s little surprise the group has resorted to dividend cuts, in addition to promoting off its Spanish and Italian companies.
On the intense facet, progress in Türkiye and Africa is accelerating. These markets might show more and more essential for a restoration within the Vodafone share value — if one is to materialise in any respect. Nearer to dwelling, it’s good to see revenues are additionally recovering within the UK, which is chargeable for practically a fifth of whole gross sales.
After which we come again to the merger. The mixed entity will boast 27m prospects, making it Britain’s largest cellular community. In idea, that ought to present the group with important economies of scale and improved effectivity. Moreover, reported plans for the launch of a TV service might assist buyer retention figures. So, there’s some room for optimism.
I’m not satisfied
Nonetheless, I don’t assume the merger is ample to assuage my basic considerations in regards to the well being of Vodafone’s enterprise. It’s a debt-heavy enterprise that’s dropping hundreds of thousands of shoppers in a core market. To make issues worse, chunky dividend cuts considerably cut back the inventory’s passive earnings attraction.
Traders in Vodafone shares will undoubtedly hope the subsequent six months are extra constructive. Their religion could also be validated, however I received’t be becoming a member of their firm for now. General, I feel loads of different FTSE 100 shares have a extra compelling funding case right this moment.
