Forecast: see where the electrifying Aviva share price and dividend may go next

The Aviva (LSE: AV.) share value has been doing what I by no means anticipated to see it do – skyrocketing. It’s up 29% during the last yr, 63% over two years and 152% over 5 years.

Whereas different FTSE 100 financials are doing properly, none can maintain a candle to Aviva. I do know, as a result of I maintain them. Sadly, I don’t maintain Aviva.

It hasn’t simply delivered development in spades, it’s been doling out dividends too. The trailing yield has dipped barely, however solely due to the surge in share value. Buyers are nonetheless pocketing 5.63% a yr, which is way from shabby.

Sharper, leaner, stronger

The enterprise has remodeled underneath CEO Amanda Blanc. She’s offloaded underperforming abroad belongings and honed in on the core UK market. The £3.7bn acquisition of Direct Line ought to double down on that.

We noticed the advantages in Aviva’s full-year outcomes, printed on 27 February. Working revenue rose 20% to £1.77bn and the dividend climbed 7% to 35.7p a share. Aviva is now concentrating on £2bn of working revenue by 2026. Common insurance coverage premiums and belongings underneath administration each grew strongly.

The corporate additionally clocked up report bulk buy annuity gross sales of £7.8bn and a 42% spike in safety gross sales, helped by the acquisition of AIG’s UK safety enterprise. Blanc is now leaning into capital-light development, which now drives 56% of working revenue.

One other robust quarter

The robust efficiency carried into 2025. In Q1, printed in Might, common insurance coverage premiums, wealth internet flows, retirement gross sales and annuity revenues all flew. So did safety and medical insurance gross sales.

Blanc reckons Aviva is in “nice form”, and I can see why. The steadiness sheet is stable, the product vary broad, and the shopper base is now 17m robust. The agency says it’s assured in hitting all its medium-term monetary objectives.

There’s a catch. With the shares at an 18-year excessive, I’m now questioning how a lot additional this may run. Twelve analysts have a median one-year value goal of 649.2p, simply 2% above in the present day’s 634p. That displays my concern that the share value beneficial properties could sluggish from right here.

Revenue nonetheless rising

On the plus facet, dividends are forecast to develop once more, with a yield of 6.04% in 2025 and 6.48% in 2026.

But the valuation offers me pause. The trailing price-to-earnings ratio is a frothy 27.5, suggesting the inventory is priced for perfection. That’s all the time a danger.

One other concern is that Aviva is closely targeted on the UK, which isn’t precisely in impolite well being proper now. It operates in a extremely aggressive sector, and rivals will likely be battling arduous to compete and play catch up. At in the present day’s valuation, any earnings miss may very well be punished.

Nonetheless, 10 out of 14 analysts charge it a Purchase or Robust Purchase. If I held it, I wouldn’t be in a rush to promote. However with the shares trying absolutely valued, I’d be cautious of opening a brand new place at this value.

That mentioned, for long-term dividend traders, there’s nonetheless loads to love. And with a yield this robust, some may think about shopping for anyway, even when the fireworks fade a little bit.