Bitcoin mining business analysts have provide you with somewhat diverging views concerning the longer term trajectory of the community’s hash charge.
Bob Burnett, the CEO of Barefoot Mining, believes that Bitcoin hashrate shouldn’t be going to expertise exponential progress.
“Hash charge will increase over the foreseeable future usually tend to simply observe Moore’s legislation,” he mentioned.
The bull case
Dr. Jeff Ross, founding father of Vailshire Capital Administration, has predicted that Bitcoin hashrate might doubtlessly skyrocket this yr.
The reinstatement of 100% bonus depreciation within the up to date 2026 U.S. tax code is considered as the primary catalyst. This provision makes it potential for miners to right away write off the complete value of recent infrastructure within the yr of buy somewhat than depreciating it over a decade.
“So if you’re going to construct, uh, you understand, an information heart or a producing heart and purchase a bunch of kit, or in case you’re a Bitcoin miner and you are going to purchase a loopy quantity of ASICs and plug them in, you are going to wait till January of 2026 to do this. Why? As a result of then you are able to do a 100% depreciation immediately, proper off the bat in 2026,” he mentioned.
NEW: Dr. Jeff Ross says Bitcoin hashrate will skyrocket resulting from tax modifications for 2026 permitting miners to write down off 100% of the price of Bitcoin miners.
This may free money for miners to additionally purchase Bitcoin. pic.twitter.com/wO5L7Urz2e
— Merely Bitcoin (@SimplyBitcoin) January 1, 2026
This collapse in taxable earnings, Ross argues, will pressure miners to “over-invest” in {hardware} to defend their income.
“There are some Bitcoin miners that I feel might be paying near zero taxes for 2026 and possibly 2027, and possibly roll ahead all the way in which into 2028 due to this depreciation rule,” he mentioned.
The fact case
Nevertheless, Burnett clearly doesn’t purchase this extreme optimism. The analyst argues that electrons are literally the primary bottleneck, and the capital is a somewhat secondary problem.
“There’s not sufficient incremental power accessible for hash charge to skyrocket,” Burnett famous in a current evaluation.
The backlog for grid interconnection in main mining hubs of the likes of Texas is now measured in years. Miners should purchase all of the ASICs they need with their tax financial savings. With out an energized transformer, nevertheless, these machines are simply costly paperweights.
Therefore, Burnett predicts that the expansion curve of Bitcoin’s hashrate will mirror Moore’s Legislation.
