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The Barclays (LSE: BARC) share worth has been one of many FTSE 100‘s brightest lights and exhibits no signal of slowing. It’s up nearly 60% over the past 12 months and 270% over 5, which is placing when set in opposition to a cost-of-living squeeze and weak UK development.
Mockingly, latest larger inflation has helped. It pushed up rates of interest and widened internet curiosity margins, the hole between what banks pay savers and cost debtors.
Barclays additionally retains a big US funding financial institution, giving it entry to a market that tends to develop sooner than the UK. It provides threat but in addition potential reward. When buyers get twitchy, Barclays can fall sooner than extra cautious UK-focused rivals corresponding to Lloyds, however stronger situations permit it to tug away.
Prime FTSE 100 performer
The actual cause Barclays has performed so nicely is that it makes baggage of cash, and shares it round. In full-year 2024 pre-tax earnings jumped 24% to £8.1bn and group return on tangible fairness (RoTE) hit 10.5%. The financial institution returned £3bn to shareholders, together with a £1bn share buyback and a 5.5p full-year dividend.
2025 has delivered extra of the identical. Third-quarter earnings climbed 11% to £7.2bn, whereas group RoTE for the primary 9 months of the monetary 12 months hit 12.3%.
Barclays has additionally been busy increasing. It purchased Tesco’s retail banking enterprise final 12 months. In October it secured a Saudi investment-banking licence and agreed to pay $800m for US private mortgage platform Greatest Egg. This may additionally deliver threat in fact. Acquisitions don’t all the time work.
The financial institution has largely ducked the motor-finance mis-selling storm, which hit Lloyds arduous. If that wasn’t sufficient, it now appears unlikely that banks will face a windfall tax within the coming Price range (though nothing is confirmed but).
Development, buybacks, and dividends
Markets are jittery a few attainable AI-driven bubble. Any correction or crash would nearly actually hit Barclays. But the shares climbed an additional 7.5% over the past month. With a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.4, the inventory nonetheless seems to be affordable. What’s to not like?
The trailing dividend yield is low at 2.1%. That’s partly as a result of the share worth has run forward of itself, but in addition as a result of the board prefers buybacks as a means of rewarding shareholders.
The Financial institution of England held rates of interest at 4% yesterday (6 November) however markets now count on a minimize on the 18 December assembly, with extra seemingly subsequent 12 months. Cheaper cash could slim internet curiosity margins. It may additionally carry the UK housing market although, driving mortgage exercise.
Lengthy-term case compelling
No huge financial institution is ever utterly freed from threat. A regulatory scandal or inventory market swing may hit Barclays shares at any time. If we get an AI crash, all bets are off. But the numbers look stable, the technique is obvious and the enterprise has left the 2008 disaster agency within the rearview mirror. Let’s simply hope the massive banks don’t ramp up the danger degree, as recollections fade.
I believe Barclays is nicely price contemplating, though it shares most absolutely sluggish from right here. If involved, buyers may feed cash into the inventory little by little, benefiting from any dips. Its rampant run can’t final ceaselessly, however its long-term potential nonetheless seems to be stable to me.
