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This has been a brutal 12 months for shareholders of high-street meals chain Greggs (LSE: GRG). The Greggs share value has crashed onerous in 2025, leaving its homeowners — together with my household portfolio — feeling fairly queasy. With this inventory mendacity far under the highs of 2021/22, what may cease the rot and get this share surging once more?
Grotesque Greggs
In some ways, Greggs is a good British success story, serving ‘meals on the go’ — together with sausage rolls, sandwiches and sizzling drinks — to hundreds of thousands of shoppers day-after-day from over 2,650 shops.
The group began out in Newcastle upon Tyne in 1939, with John Gregg delivering items by bicycle. The primary store opened in Gosforth in 1951 and the corporate goals to develop its property to three,000 shops.
I confess that I’m a giant fan of Greggs and its good-value choices. This may be as a result of my origins additionally lie within the North East of England, the place I lived for the primary 5 years of my life. Nevertheless, as latest shareholders on this chain, we’re sitting on a big paper loss. Disclosure: we purchased our stake (not a steak bake!) for 1,683p a share on 2 July.
At their all-time excessive, Greggs share peaked at 3,443p on 30 December 2021. As I write, this inventory trades at 1,415p, valuing this FTSE 250 agency at underneath £1.5bn — a far cry from its former excessive.
At its 2025 peak, the shares hit 2,890p on 8 January, nevertheless it’s been steeply downhill just about ever since. For the file, the share value is down 33.2% over six months and 47.7% over one 12 months. It’s additionally nearly halved this calendar 12 months (-49.1%) and is down 18.5% over the previous 5 years.
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Worth lure or restoration play?
The collapsing Greggs share value signifies that it now trades on round 10 instances earnings, delivering an earnings yield nearing 10%. Additionally, the plunging value has boosted the dividend yield to a tasty 4.9% a 12 months. This payout is roofed over two instances by historic earnings, however retailers have been struggling because the summer time.
To me, these fundamentals hardly appear like these of a failing agency. Slightly, I imagine that this inventory is firmly in bargain-bin territory and might be primed for restoration. Certainly, if I may purchase this whole enterprise at in the present day’s market valuation, I wouldn’t hesitate to take action.
That stated, my first foray into Greggs shares has been problematic. At current, we’re nursing a 15.9% loss on paper, excluding money dividends. So far, catching this falling knife has left my household with bloody fingers.
For now, issues look gloomy for Greggs, with earnings hit by slowing gross sales development, greater employer Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions, and decrease margins. However this isn’t a garbage enterprise — in my opinion, it’s simply going by some short-term wobbles.
In the long run, I anticipate gross sales development and property enlargement to renew, lifting Greggs’ revenues, earnings, money stream — and its share value. Nevertheless, if chancellor Rachel Reeves unveils new enterprise taxes in her Price range on Thursday, 26 November, then all bets are off!
