Is the S&P 500 set for a crash? Here’s my plan for the US stock market

It’s been a unstable yr for the S&P 500, however the index as an entire is up round 15%. That’s not a nasty end result in any respect, however there are indicators issues are beginning to look a bit harmful. 

Thus far in 2025, a handful of huge know-how firms have been carrying the remainder of the index. However as involved voices begin to develop louder, might there be a crash on the best way?

Focus

Giant elements of the US financial system have been weak in 2025, however it hasn’t actually mattered to the S&P 500. Synthetic intelligence funding has been accelerating and that’s carried the index.

The reason being that the ten firms collectively make up round 40% of the index. And all however two of them (Berkshire Hathaway and JP Morgan) are closely concerned within the progress of AI. 

In consequence, it hasn’t actually mattered that issues haven’t been going properly elsewhere. Shoppers is perhaps beneath strain, however AI spending has been carrying the day for the S&P 500.

The opposite facet of that coin, although, is that if AI shares fall sharply, it’s going to be exhausting for anything to offset this. And there are rising indicators that this would possibly occur.

AI dangers

The danger for the share costs is that if the market thinks the large investments being made in AI may not in the end repay. And buyers are simply beginning to get nervous about this. 

Michael Burry – of the Massive Brief Fame – has steered that unrealistic assumptions about depreciation are making AI investments look extra worthwhile. I thinks it is a actual concern.

Burry doesn’t all the time get the timing proper, however he’s very not often incorrect about what’s occurring. And there’s additionally the problem of how OpenAI funds its $1.4trn spending commitments. 

All of this makes the prospect of a crash extra sensible. However – as all the time – I believe there are some shares that look fascinating even when others is perhaps beneath imminent strain.

Nike

Weak spot in client spending means it’s not been yr for Nike (NYSE:NKE). However I do assume the corporate has a powerful long-term aggressive place. 

The agency misplaced its manner a bit beneath earlier administration. And the ensuing lack of market share illustrates the dangers that include working in an trade the place switching prices are low. 

Regardless of the current difficulties, the newest information from the Piper Sandler Teen Survey signifies that it’s nonetheless the primary model with US youngsters. I believe it is a essential signal.

A price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 33, makes the inventory look costly. But when that’s being inflated by artificially low earnings – as I believe it’s – the inventory may very well be properly price a glance.

Remaining Silly ideas

AI has been accounting for increasingly of the S&P 500. And whereas the index as an entire would possibly wrestle to resist a crash on this a part of the market, it’s not the one sport on the town.

I believe there are alternatives for long-term buyers which might be price contemplating elsewhere. Nike is one instance, however it’s not the one one by any means.