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As a possible earnings inventory, J Sainsbury (LSE: SBRY) has dropped onto my radar once more.
For a very long time, I’ve insisted on a dividend yielding a minimum of 5% from firms working within the grocery store sector. That type of return makes the chance of holding the shares worthwhile.
Nonetheless, J Sainsbury shot up on the finish of 2023, inflicting the yield to drop decrease. So it was off limits for me till weak spot within the share worth this 12 months.
Now, with the share worth close to 256p, the forward-looking dividend yield for the buying and selling 12 months to February 2025 is above 5% once more.
Money movement is king
However grocery store companies are low margin, excessive turnover operations. Issues can shift simply when juggling the large numbers of income and prices, and that may result in decrease earnings.
We noticed Tesco get into bother a couple of years again and the same situation might occur with Sainsbury’s sooner or later. In spite of everything, the sector is fiercely aggressive, and the rise of discounting operators like Aldi and Lidl appears unstoppable.
Nonetheless, one benefit J Sainsbury does have is steady money movement. That’s a necessary ingredient for any enterprise backing a dividend-paying inventory. It takes money to pay dividends and the grocery store sector is understood for its defensive traits. In different phrases, grocery store companies are much less cyclical than many others.
Right here’s the money movement and dividend file with the per-share figures proven in pence:
| 12 months to February | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024(e) | 2025(e) |
| Working money movement per share | 56.2 | 42.3 | 55.5 | 106 | 42.9 | 92.9 | ? | ? |
| Dividend per share | 10.2 | 11 | 3.3 | 10.6 | 13.1 | 13.1 | 13 | 13.8 |
I just like the money movement numbers being a lot bigger than the dividend figures. Nonetheless, can wholesome quantities of money movement proceed?
Investing for development
Buyers look like just a little unsure about that judging by the latest drop within the share worth. Maybe the corporate’s technique replace launched on 7 April 2024 explains among the concern.
The administrators intend to extend capital expenditure in an effort to construct future development and “improve returns for shareholders”. A part of the plan entails opening round 75 new Sainsbury’s native comfort shops over the following three years.
Will elevated capital expenditure compete with the money accessible for dividends? Possibly. However the firm expects money movement to extend as earnings develop.
The administrators, in the meantime, declared their dedication to a progressive dividend and share buyback coverage. They stated: “a better degree of capital funding is balanced with a bolstered dedication to sturdy free money movement technology and stronger returns for shareholders”.
In additional element, the thought is to start rising dividends from the beginning of the brand new buying and selling 12 months on the finish of February 2024. On prime of that, a £200m share buyback programme will unfold over the course of the following buying and selling 12 months to February 2025.
There’s no point out I can see of rebasing the dividend decrease earlier than elevating it incrementally! In the meantime, Metropolis analysts have pencilled in an uptick within the shareholder fee for the approaching 12 months.
There are uncertainties, in fact. However on steadiness, I see J Sainsbury as price dividend traders’ additional analysis time now.
