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With this 12 months nearly performed, 2026 has been very rewarding for buyers. Main inventory markets — similar to New York, London, and Tokyo — have surged to new heights this 12 months. Nevertheless, after 4 extremely worthwhile years, I’m nervous 2026 may very well be a poor 12 months for the UK’s FTSE 100, US S&P 500, and the like.
Fabulous FTSE
Over the past six years, the excellent shares to personal for world buyers have been US mega-cap tech shares. Shares within the so-called Magnificent Seven have surged to all-time highs, delivering many trillions of {dollars} of good points. Nevertheless, with US inventory markets buying and selling near document ranges, some worry it is a bubble doomed to burst.
Nevertheless, what many individuals could not have seen is that the ‘boring, old-economy’ FTSE 100 index has completely thrashed the S&P 500 over the previous 12 months. The Footsie has leapt by 22.2% over 12 months, versus 14.4% for its American cousin.
Moreover, FTSE companies typically pay beneficiant money dividends — the index’s dividend yield is hovering round 3.1% a 12 months. In the meantime, the present yearly money yield for the S&P 500 is simply over 1.1%. That’s one other couple of share factors within the UK index’s favour.
In sterling phrases, this hole is turns into a gulf, due to the pound rising in opposition to the US greenback. For UK buyers, the S&P 500’s complete return is simply 10.8% during the last 12 months — lower than half that of its British rival.
My household are delighted that UK shares have surged since 2024, as our portfolio consists of round 25 FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 worth/dividend/revenue shares.
Bother in 2026?
When buyers purchase property at sky-high costs, future returns typically undergo. Therefore, I’m nervous that subsequent 12 months may be poor for the main US indexes (the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite). Alas, falling US markets would seemingly drag London down, as a result of “when New York sneezes, London catches chilly” — as one outdated Metropolis saying goes.
In brief, I anticipate 2026 to be the FTSE 100’s worst 12 months since Covid-hit 2020, when the index returned -11.6%. As the longer term is inherently unsure, I gained’t guess London’s returns subsequent 12 months. That mentioned, I’m satisfied they gained’t match the galloping good points of the final 4 years.
Discount Bunzl?
As a worth investor, I typically rummage within the FTSE 100’s discount bin for undervalued shares. Earlier, I noticed that one in all my household portfolio’s newest purchases is among the many Footsie’s worst performers this 12 months.
The index’s second-biggest loser in 2026 is bombed-out Bunzl (LSE: BNZL), whose shares collapsed on 15 April after poorly acquired outcomes. At its 52-week excessive on 13 February, this inventory briefly touched 3,488p. At their 2026 low on 17 December, the shares hit 2,050p, having collapsed greater than two-fifths (-41.2%).
On Friday, 19 December, Bunzl inventory closed at 2,094p, valuing this world distribution and outsourcing enterprise at simply £6.8bn. In the meantime, Bunzl’s plunging share worth has lowered its valuation to 14.4 occasions trailing earnings. This delivers an incomes yield of 6.9%, thus the agency’s market-beating dividend yield of three.5% a 12 months is roofed nearly twice by historic earnings.
If world inventory markets do head south subsequent 12 months, then I anticipate Bunzl inventory to comply with swimsuit. But its conservative enterprise mannequin ought to flip this enterprise round over time, so we gained’t promote our stake!
