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The BT Group (LSE:BT.A) share worth is 78% above its lows final April (2024). The rally has been fuelled by a wave of optimism round price cuts and several other high-profile inventory purchases. Nevertheless, the shares at the moment are at their highest level since 2022. And this leaves buyers asking whether or not there’s nonetheless worth to be discovered at this elevated share worth.
Valuation: nonetheless cheap, however not a cut price
On paper, BT’s valuation is undemanding. The value-to-earnings ratio is forecast to fall from 15.6 occasions in 2025 to 11.6 occasions in 2026 and 11.3 occasions in 2027. That’s a major low cost to the broader telecoms sector, particularly for a corporation with BT’s scale and market share.
Nevertheless, headline P/E ratios don’t inform the entire story. That’s as a result of debt is a giant a part of the image.
BT’s web debt is predicted to succeed in £20.5bn in 2026, barely outpacing its present market cap. Adjusting for this, the corporate’s enterprise worth (EV) rises to £38.4bn by 2026, placing its EV-to-EBIT at 11.4 occasions and EV-to-EBITDA at 4.7 occasions.
These multiples are nonetheless cheap, however they spotlight the corporate’s reliance on future money flows to service its hefty debt pile. The latter a part of that issues me.
The FTTP dilemma
The center of BT’s technique — and its valuation dilemma — is its huge funding in fibre to the premise (FTTP) broadband. As of 2025, Openreach is on monitor to succeed in 25m premises by 2026, with take-up charges climbing to 36%.
It is a enormous technical and monetary endeavor, with annual capital expenditure nonetheless hovering round £5bn. Administration insists that peak capex has now handed, and that free money stream will speed up from 2027 because the fibre construct winds down.
The logic is sound. Fibre is the longer term, and BT’s early lead may cement its dominance for many years. Already, the corporate is seeing larger common income per person and stickier clients.
However the dangers are appreciable. If demand falls quick, or if competitors intensifies, BT could possibly be left with a mountain of debt and decrease returns than hoped. As with all large venture, execution danger is essential.
Higher worth elsewhere maybe
Regardless of the latest rally, BT shares don’t seem overvalued primarily based on comparative metrics. Furthermore, the ahead dividend yield, at round 4.5%, seems secure given earnings projections. What’s extra, analysts stay broadly optimistic, with consensus worth targets above present ranges.
Nevertheless, the simple good points could also be behind us, and the subsequent leg of the story will depend upon robust execution. This implies delivering FTTP on time, rising revenues, and steadily lowering debt.
In brief, buyers haven’t missed their likelihood, however the risk-reward stability has shifted. Personally, I imagine there could also be higher alternatives elsewhere. The present place doesn’t supply a lot margin for security and there’s not a clearly outlined worth play.
That’s why I’m not shopping for in the present day, however wished I purchased 13 months in the past once I mentioned I used to be going to, waited too lengthy, and missed a 20% rally.
